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Após vitória contra o CSA, Grêmio alcança a maior probabilidade de acesso desde o início da Série B

Foto de Redação PG Redação PG5 de outubro de 2022
2 minutos de leitura

O Grêmio está em contagem regressiva para voltar à Série A. Após a vitória por 2 a 0 contra o CSA, ontem (4), na Arena, em partida pela 33ª rodada da Série B do Campeonato Brasileiro, o Tricolor chegou aos 56 pontos (56% de aproveitamento), ocupando a segunda colocação do campeonato nacional.

Além disso, o empate do Bahia contra o Novorizontino nesta terça-feira ajudou a equipe de Renato Portaluppi a manter-se na mesma posição, elevando ainda mais a probabilidade gremista de acesso à Série A, visto que a equipe baiana continuou a ter uma pior campanha na competição em relação ao clube gaúcho.

Nesse contexto, segundo as contas feitas pelo departamento de matemática da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), o Imortal tem agora 97,6 % de chance de ficar entre os quatro primeiros que subirão à Série A do Campeonato Brasileiro. Com isso, o Tricolor alcançou a sua maior probabilidade de acesso desde o início da Série B, superando os 96,6% de chance que tinha antes desta rodada

Ademais, nesse momento, o Grêmio tem a maior probabilidade de acesso à Série A entre todos os clubes que ainda lutam para assegurar o seu lugar entre os quatro primeiros (o Cruzeiro já está classificado).

Grêmio está a um triunfo do objetivo principal

Dentro do G4 desde a 13ª rodada, o Grêmio precisa de mais uma vitória para garantir o acesso à Série A, visto que o rendimento atual do bloco da ponta da tabela indica os 59 pontos como número mágico para o acesso. Isso porque, hoje, com 50 pontos, o clube gaúcho estaria na zona de classificação — o Sport possui 49 (49% de aproveitamento). Calculando esse rendimento sobre o total de rodadas restantes da Série B, é improvável que o time pernambucano, mantendo o seu aproveitamento, consiga ultrapassar a pontuação de 59.

Com isso, restariam ao Imortal apenas três pontos para consolidar um lugar entre os quatro primeiros. Vale ressaltar que o Tricolor ainda possui cinco partidas até o final da Série B.

Caminho é facilitado por números de edições passadas

Além da projeção matemática para o acesso, os dirigentes gremistas também baseiam-se nas campanhas das equipes que subiram nas últimas edições da Série B. Em 2018, por exemplo, o Goiás alcançou o acesso com apenas 60, número que aproxima-se do atual cenário projetado.

O quarto colocado nos últimos anos:

  • 2021 – Avaí, com 64 pontos;
  • 2020 – Cuiabá, com 61 pontos;
  • 2019 – Atlético-GO, com 62 pontos;
  • 2018 – Goiás, com 60 pontos.
Foto de Redação PG Redação PG5 de outubro de 2022
2 minutos de leitura
Foto de Redação PG

Redação PG

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